Supply chain resilience in times of geopolitical uncertainty
Only a few months into 2026 and global organisations are once again facing heightened geopolitical tension and renewed supply chain disruptions. The escalating conflict in the Middle East already led to volatility in global oil and gas markets. The war in Ukraine, evolving U.S. tariff policies, and widening regulatory uncertainty continue to affect global trade patterns and supply chains.
These developments compound longer-term structural challenges such as climate risks and increased human rights violations.
The global landscape is reshaping itself faster than many organisations can adapt to, and supply chains must evolve to remain resilient and competitive.
The intensification of conflicts, trade divergences, and sanctions illustrate how quickly political action can ripple across global markets. This reinforces the need to understand where vulnerabilities lie. Without visibility into suppliers, sub-suppliers, and critical dependencies, companies risk exposure to shocks they could have anticipated.
Understand your supply chain and value drivers
To navigate the new landscape, organisations must avoid getting paralyzed. Focusing solely on downside risks can prevent timely action. Instead, companies should direct resources toward understanding their supply chains, identifying value drivers, and preparing for multiple scenarios.
Ultimately, resilience comes down to knowing your suppliers, your dependencies, and your vulnerabilities. Without this visibility, the risk of unforeseen and unmanageable disruptions increases significantly.
Ethos recommendations for building supply chain resilience
1. Map your supply chain
Identify the geographic distribution of your suppliers and determine which are critical to your operations.
Collaborate with tier‑1 suppliers to map deeper into the value chain. This reveals risks and dependencies further upstream, where disruptions often originate.
2. Assess the feasibility of alternative suppliers and quantify scenarios
Evaluate how practical it would be to switch suppliers if geopolitical or economic conditions change.
Quantify the operational, financial, and logistical impacts of substituting a supplier or component. This enables preparedness and may even reveal cost efficiency opportunities.
3. Develop a strategic contingency plan
Based on your supply chain mapping, establish a structured continuity plan:
Conduct a risk analysis and scenario planning to identify vulnerabilities (e.g., IT disruptions, delays, shortages of critical materials).
Define crisis operating procedures that detail how the business will function during a disruption.
Assign clear responsibilities across the organisation to ensure rapid and coordinated action.
Create a communication plan for employees, customers, clients, and suppliers to maintain trust and minimise confusion.
Train and prepare your organisation through simulations and scenario exercises.
4. Identify opportunities in the changing landscape
Evaluate how geopolitical shifts may create value for your organisation.
Think creatively, engage external experts, and explore untapped regions or markets that may benefit from shifting tariffs, alliances, or trade flows.
If your organisation needs support in navigating these geopolitical shifts and strengthening supply chain resilience, you are welcome to reach out to us at Ethos for guidance and practical support.
Contact Erik Weidstam to know more!
Erik Weidstam
Senior Advisor, Ethos
erik.weidstam@ethos.se
About Ethos
Ethos is one of the Nordic region’s oldest and leading sustainability-focused consultancies, with over 20 experts covering environmental issues, human rights, and anti-corruption. We help medium to large companies and financial market actors address sustainability challenges—from strategic boardroom decisions to operational policy compliance on the factory floor. Ethos tailors each project to clients' needs, supporting compliance with CSRD, SFDR, EU Taxonomy, and CSDDD regulations while guiding their strategic sustainability journeys.